Currency Strategy: US Dollar — Deficit Danger
Sophia Drossos
货币策略：美元存在赤字风险，全球经济复苏将使美元继续走低
Deficit concerns rising in prominence. The stabilization in the global economy should erode a key support for the US dollar as investors shift out of safe-haven asset and move into more cyclical trades. We have looked at the consequences this may have for funding the ballooning US fiscal deficit. As the global economy moves into a recovery, US funding of the US fiscal deficit will become more difficult, putting greater pressure on the USD to adjust lower.
US Credit Strategy: Making the Best of a Bad Situation
R. Hussain, G. Peters, A. Richmond
信用风险：流动性在提高，但公司基本面在恶化
Despite improved liquidity, fundamentals are still deteriorating. With the conflicting signs between price action and certain fundamentals, we have taken a step back to dig into corporate balance sheets and gauge how well non-financial investment-grade corporates are weathering the downturn. Even though companies have used the restrictive credit environment of the last two quarters to improve liquidity positions, in aggregate, fundamentals continue to deteriorate.
Europe Equity Strategy: A Finely Balanced Outlook
欧洲股权策略：市场将维持区间运行，预期未来增长放缓波动加大，通胀加剧
Green shoots could fade, but equally stimulus and positioning could extend the rally. Market could be range-trading for years to come. For the next few years we expect below-trend growth and high volatility in growth and inflation. We believe this warrants lower normalized earnings and multiples than in recent years. Our MSCI Europe fair value estimate is 850 (9% downside from the latest value of 938). The range could be as wide as 600-1200.
Commentary: Danger Over the Rainbow
Byron Wien
评价：繁荣背后隐藏危机，今年年底将走出经济低迷，但今后几年经济增长将低于3%
It seems reasonable that we could pull out of recession by year-end. But what rate of growth can we look forward to? We know consumers will try to reduce their leverage, and they represent 73% of real GDP. It is unlikely that housing will exhibit a strong rebound, and even with the stimulus, annual growth may be below 3% for the next several years. The stimulus is likely to run out of steam in 2010, and there may be no natural economic driver to take its place.
US Interest Rate Strategy: The Coming of Age of Interest Rate Markets
Jim Caron
美国利率策略：利率投资时代到来，利率仍然不稳但产生了新的投资机会
New dynamics, new opportunities. Interest-rate markets are starting to perform closer to historical norms - a signal that financial markets are functioning better, which is a direct result of economic healing. But there are still some atypical relationships that we expect will be longer-lasting. Balancing between the typical and atypical relationships brings about a new set of market dynamics that create trading opportunities.
Equity Derivatives Strategy: Dividend Discovery
Sivan Mahadevan et al.
股权衍生品交易策略：分红互换比内含回报更具吸引力，分红互换长期品种较短期品种更有优势
Dividend swap levels still look attractive through the lens of "implied earnings." Using bear, base, and bull case estimates for payout ratios, we can imply what future S&P 500 earnings need to be to make current dividend swap levels attractive. We like long-dated dividends the best, as the earnings growth needed to reach 2012+ swap levels appears very achievable. We see little reason to take bullish positions in shorter-dated swaps.
Japan Equity Strategy: Strategy Lab — Analytical Models Up a Lot, But Still Below Equilibrium
Alexander Kinmont
日本股权投资策略：模型显示索普比率在提升但仍低于均衡值
Our models show sharp improvement in market conditions but remain far below equilibrium. We see scope for further market gains medium-term. Our Risk Appetite Indicator (J-RAI) is a notable laggard in failing to strengthen further despite a rise in the market and recovery in our Fundamental Indicator (J-FI). We have introduced a Composite Market Timing Indicator (J-CMTI). Historically, holding the market while this indicator is rising has proven favorable.
Taiwan Equity Strategy: Raising Index Target
Jesse Wang, Angel Lin
台湾股权投资策略:今年台湾加权指数目标点位7700点
The Taiex could still offer absolute upside by end-2009, despite the near-term risk of a correction. Not only is the worst likely behind us, but the robust liquidity and improving retail sentiment should force investors to look beyond traditional comfort zones. We raise our end-2009 index target to 7,700 (from 5,200), which is based on one standard deviation above the midpoint of the historical trading band applied to estimated 2010 profitabi lity.
